T-Bonds’ trampoline bounce in mid-January brought many Bond bulls out of hiding, some from bomb shelters.
I remained skeptical myself, since minor upthrusts, although outwardly impressive, were having difficulty exceeding prior peaks. This problem has mitigated somewhat but still persists. I am nonetheless looking to bottom-fish if March T-Bonds fall somewhat lower from a current 114^21. A thrust exceeding 116^19 would not quite clinch the bullish case — that would take a move above early December’s 120^18 peak — but it would strongly imply that the five-month-old bear market in Treasurys is over.
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Thank You,
Rick Ackerman